Construction and validation of the survival prediction model for patients with cutaneous spindle cell melanoma

Zimao WANG; Yuan CAO; Qiying WANG

doi:10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2022.03.006

您当前的位置：

首页 >

文章列表页 >

Construction and validation of the survival prediction model for patients with cutaneous spindle cell melanoma

Article | 更新时间：2025-12-31

- Construction and validation of the survival prediction model for patients with cutaneous spindle cell melanoma
- China Oncology Vol. 32, Issue 3, Pages: 234-242(2022)
- 作者机构：
  
  郑州大学第一附属医院整形外科,河南郑州 450000
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
- DOI：10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2022.03.006
  CLC： R739.5
- Received：27 October 2021，
  
  Published：30 March 2022
- 稿件说明：
移动端阅览
Zimao WANG, Yuan CAO, Qiying WANG. Construction and validation of the survival prediction model for patients with cutaneous spindle cell melanoma[J]. China Oncology, 2022, 32(3): 234-242.
DOI：

Zimao WANG, Yuan CAO, Qiying WANG. Construction and validation of the survival prediction model for patients with cutaneous spindle cell melanoma[J]. China Oncology, 2022, 32(3): 234-242. DOI： 10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2022.03.006.

摘要

背景与目的：

梭形细胞黑色素瘤（spindle cell melanoma

SCM）是一种罕见的黑色素瘤类型

有关SCM患者生存预后的研究较少。通过提取公共数据库中的SCM临床信息

构建并验证皮肤SCM患者5和10年癌症特异性生存率（cancer-specific survival

CSS）和总生存率（overall survival

OS）的生存预测模型。

方法：

从美国国立癌症研究所监测、流行病学和最终结果（Surveillance

Epidemiology

and End Results

SEER）数据库筛选出共1 445例患者

分成建模组（

=1 011）和验证组（

=434）。通过单因素和多因素COX回归分析确定独立预后影响因素

建立列线图预测模型。利用一致性指数（concordance index

C-index）、受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic

ROC）曲线和校准曲线评估模型的区分度和准确性

利用决策曲线分析（decision curve analysis

DCA）评估模型的临床实用性。

结果：

年龄、肿瘤部位、肿瘤厚度、溃疡、N分期、M分期及手术共7个独立预后影响因素纳入预测模型

CSS和OS预测模型在建模组中的C-index分别为0.778和0.753

在验证组中的C-index为0.749和0.712。建模组5和10年CSS的曲线下面积（area under curve

AUC）分别为0.815和0.825

5和10年OS的AUC分别为0.803和0.825

验证组5和10年CSS的AUC分别为0.777和0.836

5和10年OS的AUC分别为0.754和0.799。校准曲线与45

#x000b0;线贴合良好

DCA显示

列线图模型在较广泛阈概率范围内有临床净收益

具有良好的临床应用价值。

结论：

列线图对于皮肤SCM患者预后具有良好的预测能力和临床应用价值。

Abstract

Background and purpose:

Spindle cell melanoma (SCM) is a rare type of melanoma with few studies on its survival prognosis. The nomogram for predicting 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) of patients with cutaneous SCM was constructed and validated by extracting SCM clinical information from a public database.

Methods:

A total of 1 445 patients were screened from the Surveillance

Epidemiology

and End Results (SEER) database and divided into training cohort (

=1 011) and validation cohort (

=434). The nomogram was constructed based on these independent prognostic factors which were determined by univariate and multivariate COX regression analyses. The concordance index (C-index)

receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discrimination and accuracy of the nomogram. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was

used to evaluate the clinical utility of the model.

Results:

Age

tumor site

thickness

ulceration

N stage

M stage and surgery were included in the prediction model. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.778 (CSS) and 0.753 (OS) in the training cohort

and 0.749 (CSS) and 0.712 (OS) in the validation cohort

respectively. The area under curve (AUC) of 5- and 10-year CSS were 0.815 and the AUC of 5- and 10-year OS were 0.825

and the AUC of 5- and 10-year OS were 0.803 and 0.825 in the training cohort

respectively. The AUC of 5- and 10-year were 0.777 and 0.836

and 0.754 and 0.799 in the validation cohort

respectively. The calibration curve fitted well with the 45

#x000b0; line. DCA showed that the nomogram had the clinical net benefit in a wide range of threshold probabilities and had good clinical application value.

Conclusion:

The nomogram had good predictive ability and clinical application value for the prognosis of SCM patients.

关键词

Keywords

references

WINNEPENNINCKX V , DE VOS R , STAS M , et al . New phenotypical and ultrastructural findings in spindle cell (desmoplastic/neurotropic) melanoma [J ] . Appl Immunohistochem Mol Morphol , 2003 , 11 ( 4 ): 319 - 325 .

WALIA R , JAIN D , MATHUR S R , et al . Spindle cell melanoma: a comparison of the cytomorphological features with the epithelioid variant [J ] . Acta Cytol , 2013 , 57 ( 6 ): 557 - 561 . DOI: 10.1159/000354405 http://doi.org/10.1159/000354405 https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/354405 https://www.karger.com/Article/FullText/354405

KIM J , LAZAR A J , DAVIES M A , et al . BRAF, NRAS and KIT sequencing analysis of spindle cell melanoma [J ] . J Cutan Pathol , 2012 , 39 ( 9 ): 821 - 825 . DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0560.2012.01950.x http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0560.2012.01950.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0560.2012.01950.x https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1600-0560.2012.01950.x

PIAO Y C , GUO M , GONG Y . Diagnostic challenges of metastatic spindle cell melanoma on fine-needle aspiration specimens [J ] . Cancer , 2008 , 114 ( 2 ): 94 - 101 . DOI: 10.1002/cncr.23345 http://doi.org/10.1002/cncr.23345 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cncr.23345 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/cncr.23345

BANERJEE S S , HARRIS M . Morphological and immunophenotypic variations in malignant melanoma [J ] . Histopathology , 2000 , 36 ( 5 ): 387 - 402 . DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2559.2000.00894.x http://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2559.2000.00894.x http://doi.wiley.com/10.1046/j.1365-2559.2000.00894.x http://doi.wiley.com/10.1046/j.1365-2559.2000.00894.x

MORGAN M B , PUROHIT C , ANGLIN T R . Immunohistochemical distinction of cutaneous spindle cell carcinoma [J ] . Am J Dermatopathol , 2008 , 30 ( 3 ): 228 - 232 . DOI: 10.1097/DAD.0b013e31816de820 http://doi.org/10.1097/DAD.0b013e31816de820 https://journals.lww.com/00000372-200806000-00004 https://journals.lww.com/00000372-200806000-00004

STOWMAN A M , MILLS S E , WICK M R . Spindle cell melanoma and interdigitating dendritic cell sarcoma: do they represent the same process? [J ] . Am J Surg Pathol , 2016 , 40 ( 9 ): 1270 - 1279 . DOI: 10.1097/PAS.0000000000000678 http://doi.org/10.1097/PAS.0000000000000678 https://journals.lww.com/00000478-201609000-00012 https://journals.lww.com/00000478-201609000-00012

TACHA D , QI W M , RA S , et al . A newly developed mouse monoclonal SOX10 antibody is a highly sensitive and specific marker for malignant melanoma, including spindle cell and desmoplastic melanomas [J ] . Arch Pathol Lab Med , 2015 , 139 ( 4 ): 530 - 536 . DOI: 10.5858/arpa.2014-0077-OA http://doi.org/10.5858/arpa.2014-0077-OA http://meridian.allenpress.com/aplm/article/139/4/530/194126/A-Newly-Developed-Mouse-Monoclonal-SOX10-Antibody http://meridian.allenpress.com/aplm/article/139/4/530/194126/A-Newly-Developed-Mouse-Monoclonal-SOX10-Antibody

RAWANDALE N A , SURYAWANSHI K H . Primary spindle cell malignant melanoma of esophagus: an unusual finding [J ] . J Clin Diagn Res , 2016 , 10(2): OD03-OD04.

DAINICHI T , KOBAYASHI C , FUJITA S , et al . Interdigital amelanotic spindle-cell melanoma mimicking an inflammatory process due to dermatophytosis [J ] . J Dermatol , 2007 , 34 ( 10 ): 716 - 719 . DOI: 10.1111/jde.2007.34.issue-10 http://doi.org/10.1111/jde.2007.34.issue-10 http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/toc/jde/34/10 http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/toc/jde/34/10

XU Z , SHI P , YIBULAYIN F , et al . Spindle cell melanoma: Incidence and survival, 1973-2017 [J ] . Oncol Lett , 2018 , 16 ( 4 ): 5091 - 5099 .

XU Z , YIBULAYIN F , SHI P , et al . Desmoplastic melanoma versus spindle cell melanoma: incidence and survival, 1973 to 2017 [J ] . Medicine (Baltimore) , 2018 , 97 ( 29 ): e11563 . DOI: 10.1097/MD.0000000000011563 http://doi.org/10.1097/MD.0000000000011563 https://journals.lww.com/00005792-201807200-00063 https://journals.lww.com/00005792-201807200-00063

GERSHENWALD J E , SCOLYER R A , HESS K R , et al . Melanoma staging: evidence-based changes in the American Joint Committee on Cancer eighth edition cancer staging manual [J ] . CA Cancer J Clin , 2017 , 67 ( 6 ): 472 - 492 . DOI: 10.3322/caac.21409 http://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21409 http://doi.wiley.com/10.3322/caac.21409 http://doi.wiley.com/10.3322/caac.21409

EL SHAROUNI M A , VAREY A H R , WITKAMP A J , et al . Predicting sentinel node positivity in patients with melanoma: external validation of a risk-prediction calculator (the Melanoma Institute Australia nomogram) using a large European population-based patient cohort [J ] . Br J Dermatol , 2021 , 185 ( 2 ): 412 - 418 . DOI: 10.1111/bjd.v185.2 http://doi.org/10.1111/bjd.v185.2 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/13652133/185/2 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/13652133/185/2

MARCHETTI M A , LIOPYRIS K , NAVARRETE-DECHENT C . Net benefit and decision curve analysis of competing diagnostic strategies for cutaneous melanoma [J ] . J Am Acad Dermatol , 2021 , 85 ( 2 ): e87 - e88 . DOI: 10.1016/j.jaad.2020.04.170 http://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaad.2020.04.170 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0190962220308306 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0190962220308306

IASONOS A , SCHRAG D , RAJ G V , et al . How to build and interpret a nomogram for cancer prognosis [J ] . J Clin Oncol , 2008 , 26 ( 8 ): 1364 - 1370 . DOI: 10.1200/JCO.2007.12.9791 http://doi.org/10.1200/JCO.2007.12.9791 http://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/JCO.2007.12.9791 http://ascopubs.org/doi/10.1200/JCO.2007.12.9791

WACHTEL J G , CAPLAN C W , MAKLEY T A Jr . Juvenile melanoma (mixed spindle cell and epithelioid cell nevus) of the conjunctiva [J ] . Surv Ophthalmol , 1967 , 12 ( 1 ): 12 - 16 .

HOLLMIG S T , SACHDEV R , COCKERELL C J , et al . Spindle cell neoplasms encountered in dermatologic surgery: a review [J ] . Dermatol Surg , 2012 , 38 ( 6 ): 825 - 850 . DOI: 10.1111/j.1524-4725.2012.02296.x http://doi.org/10.1111/j.1524-4725.2012.02296.x https://journals.lww.com/00042728-201206000-00001 https://journals.lww.com/00042728-201206000-00001

BALACHANDRAN V P , GONEN M , SMITH J J , et al . Nomograms in oncology: more than meets the eye [J ] . Lancet Oncol , 2015 , 16 ( 4 ): e173 - e180 . DOI: 10.1016/S1470-2045(14)71116-7 http://doi.org/10.1016/S1470-2045(14)71116-7 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470204514711167 https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470204514711167

GONG H Z , ZHENG H Y , LI J . Amelanotic melanoma [J ] . Melanoma Res , 2019 , 29 ( 3 ): 221 - 230 . DOI: 10.1097/CMR.0000000000000571 http://doi.org/10.1097/CMR.0000000000000571 https://journals.lww.com/00008390-201906000-00001 https://journals.lww.com/00008390-201906000-00001

XIAO Y , PENG S S , HU Y H , et al . Development and validation of prognostic nomogram in patients with nonmetastatic malignant melanoma: a SEER population-based study [J ] . Cancer Med , 2020 , 9 ( 22 ): 8562 - 8570 . DOI: 10.1002/cam4.v9.22 http://doi.org/10.1002/cam4.v9.22 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/20457634/9/22 https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/20457634/9/22

VERVER D , VAN KLAVEREN D , FRANKE V , et al . Development and validation of a nomogram to predict recurrence and melanoma-specific mortality in patients with negative sentinel lymph nodes [J ] . Br J Surg , 2019 , 106 ( 3 ): 217 - 225 . DOI: 10.1002/bjs.10995 http://doi.org/10.1002/bjs.10995 https://academic.oup.com/bjs/article/106/3/217-225/6092775 https://academic.oup.com/bjs/article/106/3/217-225/6092775

Views

1434

下载量

CSCD

Alert me when the article has been cited

提交

Tools

Publicity Resources

Prognostic value of inflammatory and immune markers in resectable colorectal cancer

Predictive value of lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio and serum albumin in patients with clear cell renal cell carcinoma

Clinicopathologic features of SMARCA4-deficient pulmonary malignant tumor with an emphasis on the prognosis

Treatment strategies and prognostic analysis of 87 patients with salivary duct carcinoma: a retrospective cohort study

Impact of radiation-induced lymphopenia on prognosis in patients with limited-stage small cell lung cancer: a cohort study

Related Author

马祎菲

梁新军

魏少忠

徐明彬

赵雨桐

黎承杨

赵嘉闻

马晨俊

Related Institution

华中科技大学同济医学院附属湖北肿瘤医院胃肠肿瘤外科

湖北省结直肠癌临床医学研究中心

武汉市结直肠癌临床医学研究中心

华中科技大学同济医学院附属湖北肿瘤医院腹部肿瘤科

广西医科大学第一附属医院泌尿外科

AI问答

⁰