• 论著 •

1973—2013年上海市徐汇区甲状腺癌发病趋势和生存分析

1. 1. 上海市徐汇区疾病预防控制中心慢病防治科，上海 200237 ；
2. 复旦大学附属肿瘤医院放射诊断科，复旦大学上海医学院肿瘤学系，上海 200032
• 出版日期:2016-06-30 发布日期:2016-07-28
• 通信作者: 丁建辉　E-mail: dingjh99@163.com
• 基金资助:
上海市徐汇区医学重点学科(慢性非传染性疾病预防控制)(XHZDXK1112)。

Temporal trends in the incidence and survival analysis of thyroid cancer in Xuhui District, Shanghai, 1973—2013

GU Haiyan1, ZHU Jing1, DING Jianhui2

1. 1.Department of Chronic Disease Prevention, Shanghai Xuhui District Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200237, China; 2. Department of Radiology, Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center, Department of Oncology, Shanghai Medical College, Fudan University, Shanghai 200032, China
• Published:2016-06-30 Online:2016-07-28
• Contact: DING Jianhui E-mail: dingjh99@163.com

Abstract: Background and purpose: Increasing thyroid cancer (TC) incidence has caused wide public concern. It is typically interpreted as an increase in the true occurrence of TC but may also reflect changing life style or aging of population or increased diagnostic scrutiny. This study describes the temporal trend for incidence of TC and survival rate of patients by summarizing the 41 years TC incidences and follow-up data in Xuhui District, Shanghai.. Methods: Annual TC incidence data of Xuhui District from 1973 to 2013 were provided by Shanghai Cancer Registry System. The calculation of age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR) was based on the population of the year 1973. Temporal trends in TC incidence were analyzed based on the natural spline regression model. Annual percentage change (APC) was estimated by Jointpoint software from US National Cancer Institute, as well as survival rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method by Stata software. Results: During the period from 1973 to 2013, papillary cancer was the dominant type with proportion 69.8%. The ASIRs for female TC were 2.51-2.70 times as high as those for male TC. The average age of TC incidence for male was 50.04±14.71 while for female was 48.57±13.65. When aging factors were removed, incidence rate of TC was on the rise since 1981 with the APC of 8.46% (95%CI: 5.9%-11.1%), and on a rapid growth from 2004 to 2013 with the APC of 20.30% (95%CI: 9.8%-31.7%). The study showed that the 5-year TC survival rate was 95.21%, and the 10-year TC survival rate was 89.09%. In addition, survival rate of female was higher than that of male (χ2=15.43, P=0.000 1). Conclusion: The rising trend of TC in Xuhui District is similar to those in Shanghai and some developed countries. Although the mortality rate of TC is low, it has a rapid increase in incidence. Studies on factors associated with TC will help to clarify the epidemiological features about TC and promote more efficient prevention and control strategies.