江苏省昆山市1981—2015年去食管癌死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年分析

胡文斌; 张　婷; 秦　威

doi:10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2018.04.004

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江苏省昆山市1981—2015年去食管癌死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年分析

论著 | 更新时间：2026-01-27

- 江苏省昆山市1981—2015年去食管癌死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年分析
- Impact of esophageal cancer deaths on life expectancy and potential years of life lost from 1981 to 2015 in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, China
- 中国癌症杂志 2018年28卷第4期页码：263-269
- 作者机构：
  
  1. 昆山市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制科，江苏昆山,215300
  2. 昆山高新区江浦社区卫生服务中心，江苏昆山,215300
- 作者简介：
- 基金信息：
  
  昆山市社会发展科技项目（KS1655）。
- DOI：10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2018.04.004
  中图分类号： R735.1
- 网络出版：2018-06-12，
  
  纸质出版：2018-06-12
- 稿件说明：
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胡文斌,张　婷,秦　威,等. 江苏省昆山市1981—2015年去食管癌死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年分析[J]. 中国癌症杂志, 2018, 28(4): 263-269.

胡文斌, 张　婷, 秦　威. Impact of esophageal cancer deaths on life expectancy and potential years of life lost from 1981 to 2015 in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, China[J]. China Oncology, 2018, 28(4): 263-269.
胡文斌,张　婷,秦　威,等. 江苏省昆山市1981—2015年去食管癌死因期望寿命和潜在减寿年分析[J]. 中国癌症杂志, 2018, 28(4): 263-269. DOI： 10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2018.04.004.

胡文斌, 张　婷, 秦　威. Impact of esophageal cancer deaths on life expectancy and potential years of life lost from 1981 to 2015 in Kunshan, Jiangsu Province, China[J]. China Oncology, 2018, 28(4): 263-269. DOI： 10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2018.04.004.

摘要

背景与目的：食管癌发病率和死亡率总体上呈现下降趋势，但食管癌死因对期望寿命的影响证据有限。该研究分析昆山市1981—2015年去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命和食管癌所致潜在减寿年时间趋势，用以评价食管癌死因对人群健康的影响。方法：1981—2015年恶性肿瘤死亡患者来源于死因监测，以计算去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年。用中国2000年第五次人口普查的年龄结构计算分性别的年龄标化潜在减寿年。使用平均年度变化百分比（average annual percentage change，AAPC）评价去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命和潜在减寿年在年份之间的变化趋势。结果：总人群去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命，由1981年的0.36岁下降到2015年的0.18岁，下降趋势差异有统计学意义（AAPC=-1.8%，95%CI：-2.4%~-1.2%）；男性人群去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命（AAPC=1.5%，95%CI：-2.2%~-0.8%）和女性人群去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命（AAPC=-2.3%，95%CI：-3.0%~-1.6%）也呈现下降趋势。因食管癌所致的标化潜在减寿年在总人群（AAPC=-6.3%，95%CI：-7.1%~-5.5%），男性人群（AAPC=-5.7%，95%CI：-6.7%~-4.7%）及女性人群（AAPC=-8.7%，95%CI：-10.3%~-7.1%）中明显下降，结论：去食管癌死因可增加期望寿命，食管癌所致的年龄标化潜在减寿年在过去35年间持续下降。因食管癌所致的过早死亡也在逐渐减少。

Abstract

Background and purpose: The incidence and mortality of esophageal cancer showed a downward trend substantially. However

there is limited evidence of the impact of esophageal cancer deaths on life expectancy. This study aimed to examine temporal trends in esophageal cancer eliminated life expectancy and potential years of life lost (PYLL) in Kunshan City

Jiangsu Province from 1981 to 2015. Methods: Data were collected from vital registry of Kunshan City. Esophageal cancer eliminated life expectancy and the PYLL were calculated by gender. Increased life expectancy by esophageal cancer elimination was defined as esophageal cancer eliminated life expectancy minus average life expectancy. The Chinese population in the year 2000 was used to calculate age standardized PYLL. Average annual percentage change (AAPC) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were used to examine the temporal trend in increased esophageal cancer eliminated life expectancy and PYLL. Results: From 1981 to 2015

substantial downward trend was observed in the esophageal cancer eliminated life expectancy

which decreased from 0.36 years in 1981 to 0.18 in 2015 (AAPC=-1.8%

95%CI: -2.4% to -1.2%). There were significant decreasing trends for male (AAPC=1.5%

95%CI: -2.2% to -0.8%) and female (AAPC=-2.3%

95%CI: -3.0% to -1.6%). Moreover

we found decreased agestandardized PYLL among both genders (AAPC=-6.3%

95%CI: -7.1% to -5.5%)

male (AAPC=-5.7%

95%CI: -6.7% to -4.7%) and female (AAPC=-8.7%

95%CI: -10.3% to -7.1%). Conclusion: The overall decreasing trends were observed in esophageal cancer eliminated life expectancy and age-standardized PYLL

suggesting that the effects of premature deaths due to esophageal cancers were alleviated gradually.

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