中国癌症杂志 ›› 2021, Vol. 31 ›› Issue (10): 879-891.doi: 10.19401/j.cnki.1007-3639.2021.10.002

• 专题论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

2016年上海市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡情况与2002—2016年的变化趋势分析

吴春晓 1* ,顾 凯 1* ,庞 怡 1 ,鲍萍萍 1 ,王春芳 1 ,施 亮 1 ,龚杨明 1 ,向詠梅 1 ,窦剑明 1 ,施 燕 2 ,付 晨 3
  

  1. 1. 上海市疾病预防控制中心,慢性非传染病与伤害防治所肿瘤防治科,上海 200336 ;
    2. 上海市疾病预防控制中心,慢性非传染病与伤害防治所,上海 200336 ;
    3. 上海市疾病预防控制中心,上海 200336
  • 出版日期:2021-10-30 发布日期:2021-11-08
  • 通信作者: 付 晨 E-mail:fuchen@scdc.sh.cn
  • 基金资助:
    上海市医学领军人才(2019LJ24);上海市公共卫生体系建设三年行动计划学科建设项目“大数据与人工智能应用”(项目编号:GWV-10.1-XK05);上海市科技成果转化和产业化项目;上海自然人群和大肠癌筛查人群多组学生物特征图谱及大肠癌风险评估研究(18401933403)

Analysis of the current status of cancer incidence and mortality in Shanghai, 2016 and trends of 2002-2016

WU Chunxiao 1* , GU Kai 1* , PANG Yi 1 , BAO Pingping 1 , WANG Chunfang 1 , SHI Liang 1 , GONG Yangming 1 , XIANG Yongmei 1 , DOU Jianming 1 , SHI Yan 2 , FU Chen   

  1. 1. Department of Cancer Control and Prevention, Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China; 2. Division of Noncommunicable Diseases and Injury, Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China; 3. Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shanghai 200336, China

  • Published:2021-10-30 Online:2021-11-08
  • Contact: FU Chen E-mail: fuchen@scdc.sh.cn

摘要: 背景与目的:上海市疾病预防控制中心每年更新上海市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡及其趋势的统计资料。分析2016年上海市恶性肿瘤发病和死亡的基本情况及其2002—2016年的变化趋势。方法:采用上海市疾病预防控制中心建立的人群基础肿瘤登记管理系统和死因登记系统收集的2002—2016年恶性肿瘤发病和死亡资料,按诊断或死亡年份、性别和年龄组分层分析,计算数量、构成比、粗率、年龄别率、年龄标准化率(标化率)等指标,同时计算不同分组的主要癌症类型的数量、构成比和率值。按性别划分的所有恶性肿瘤和各主要癌症类型的发病和死亡标化率采用Joinpoint回归模型计算年度变化百分比(annual percent change,APC)分析变化趋势。应用Segi’s 1960年世界标准人口计算发病和死亡的标化率。结果:2016年上海市恶性肿瘤新发病例和死亡人数分别为74 422例和37 010人,粗发病率为513.94/10万,标化发病率为231.58/10万,女性的标化发病率高于男性。粗死亡率为255.58/10万,标化死亡率为90.01/10万,男性的标化死亡率高于女性。年龄别发病和死亡的数量和率值随着年龄的增长而增加,年龄别发病的数量和率值分别在60~64岁组和80~84岁组达到高峰,年龄别死亡的数量和率值分别在80~84岁组和85岁及以上组达到高峰。按发病例数排序,前10位常见癌症类型的部位依次为肺、结直肠、甲状腺、胃、乳腺、肝脏、前列腺、胰腺、脑和中枢神经系统、膀胱。按死亡人数排序,前10位依次为肺、结直肠、胃、肝、胰腺、乳腺、胆囊、食管、前列腺和淋巴系统。按性别划分的发病和死亡的前10位常见癌症类型与按常见组合年龄段划分的前5位常见癌症类型差异较大。总体上,男性的标化发病率在2002—2009年维持稳定状态,在2009—2016年以年均1.16%的增速上升,女性的标化发病率在2002—2009年维持稳定状态,在2009—2016年以年均4.48%的增速上升。2002—2016年,男性的标化死亡率以年均1.35%的减速下降,女性的标化死亡率以年均1.31%的减速下降。不同性别和癌症类型的变化趋势各不相同。结论:尽管男性和女性的标化发病率略有上升,但是对应的标化死亡率正在下降。按性别或年龄分层的总体和常见癌症类型的现况和趋势反映了上海户籍人口在癌症危险因素、筛查技术应用和诊疗水平等方面的变化。以人群为基础的癌症发病和死亡资料可用于减少癌症负担。

关键词: 恶性肿瘤, 发病率, 死亡率, 趋势, 上海

Abstract: Background and purpose: The Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention provides annual updates on cancer occurrence and trends in Shanghai. This study aimed to investigate the cancer incidence and mortality in 2016 and their trends from 2002 to 2016 in Shanghai. Methods: Data of new cancer diagnoses and deaths from 2002 to 2016 were obtained from the Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention population-based cancer registry and Vital Statistics System. Cancer incidence and mortality stratified by year of diagnosis or death, gender and age group were analyzed. Number, proportion, crude rate, age-specific rate, age-standardized rate and others were calculated. The number, proportion and rates of common cancers in different groups were also calculated. Trends in age-standardized rate of incidence and death rates for all cancers combined and for the common cancer types by gender were estimated by joinpoint analysis and characterized by the annual percent change (APC). Segi’s 1960 world standard population was used for calculating age-standardized incidence and mortality. Results: The new cancer cases and deaths were 74 422 and 37 010 in Shanghai in 2016. The crude rate of incidence was 513.94/10 5 , and the age-standardized rate was 231.58/10 5 . The age-standardized rate of incidence was higher among females than among males. The crude rate of mortality was 255.58/10 5 , and the age-standardized rate was 90.01/10 5 . The age-standardized rate of mortality was higher among males than among females. The age-specific numbers and rates of incidence and mortality increased with age. The age-specific number and rate of incidence reached the peak at the age groups of 60-64 years and 80-84 years, and those of mortality reached the peak at the age groups of 80-84 years and more than 85 years, respectively. The sites of top 10 common cancer types sorted by the number of incidence cases were lung, colorectum, thyroid, stomach, breast, liver, prostate, pancreas, brain and central nervous system and bladder. The sites of those sorted by the number of mortality deaths were lung, colorectum, stomach, liver, pancreas, breast, gallbladder, esophagus, prostate and lymphoma. The top 10 common cancer types stratified by gender and the top 5 common cancer types stratified by common age groups merged of incidence and mortality had wide variations. Overall, the age-standardized rates of incidence among males were stable from 2002 to 2009, and increased 1.16% on average per year from 2009 to 2016. Those among females were stable from 2002 to 2009, and increased 4.48% on average per year from 2009 to 2016. The age-standardized rates of mortality among males decreased 1.35% on average per year, and those among females decreased 1.31% on average per year from 2002 to 2016. The trends differed by gender and cancer type. Conclusion: Although the age-standardized rates of cancer incidence were increasing slightly among males and females, those of cancer mortality were decreasing. These current status and trends of overall and common cancer types stratified by gender or age reflect Shanghai permanent population changes in cancer risk factors, screening test use, diagnostic practices and treatment advances. Population-based cancer incidence and mortality data can be used to inform efforts to decrease the cancer burden.

Key words:  Cancer, Incidence, Mortality, Trends, Shanghai